Breast Cancer Prognosis

Prognosis

In the U.S., about 40,410 women will die from breast cancer this year, making it the second most lethal cancer in women. (Lung cancer is the leading cancer killer in women.) The good news is that early detection and new treatments have improved survival rates. The 5-year survival rate for women diagnosed with cancer is 80%. About 88% of women diagnosed with breast cancer will survive at least 10 years. Unfortunately, women in lower social and economic groups still have significantly lower survival rates than women in higher groups.

Several factors are used to determine successful treatment and the possibility for a cure. They include:

• The location of the tumor and how far it has spread
• Whether the tumor is hormone receptor-positive or -negative
• Genetic factors
• Tumor size and shape
• Rate of cell division
• Biologic markers

The good news is that women are living longer with breast cancer, and at this time more than 2 million American women are survivors. Survivors must live with the uncertainties of possible recurrent cancer and some risk for complications from the treatment itself.

Recurrences of cancer usually develop within 5 years of treatment. However, 25% of recurrences and half of new cancers in the opposite breast occur after 5 years. One study suggested that the risk factors for a first breast cancer do not necessarily place a woman at any higher risk for recurrence. (Women with a first cancer, however, do have a higher risk for a new cancer in the opposite breast. The outlook for such new cancers is independent from those of the first one.)

Location of the Tumor

The location of the tumor is a major factor in outlook:

• If the cancer is ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) or has not spread to the lymph nodes (is node-negative), the 5-year survival rates with treatment are up to 98%. However, cancer recurs in 9 - 30% of such node-negative cancers. Recurrence is a potentially life-threatening problem, even if the disease relapses locally in the same breast. In one study of DCIS patients with locally invasive recurrence, 8-year mortality rates were only 12%.
• If the lymph nodes contain cancer cells (are node positive) then survival rates fall. If the tumor is larger than 5 cm or there is widespread involvement in the lymph nodes, the cancer is sometimes referred to as locally advanced. In such cases, the survival rate drops to about 75% and below.
• If the cancer has spread to other sites (most often the lung, liver, and bone), the average survival time for patients treated with chemotherapy is 1 - 2 years (with some patients living for many years). New combinations of drugs are improving these averages.