How Likely Are You to Develop PTSD?

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Researchers at New York University (NYU) School of Medicine in New York City have developed an analytical model to accurately predict the likelihood of a person developing posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) after a frightening or shocking event.

NYU psychiatrists evaluated people who had experienced significant trauma, ranging from traffic and workplace accidents to assaults and terror attacks. They used the Clinician-Administered PTSD Scale within 60 days of the trauma and conducted a follow-up interview 4 to 15 months later. Then, they analyzed their results further using the Brier Score and other methods.

Using this model, they determined that about 12 percent of people exposed to trauma develop PTSD —9.2 percent of men and 16.4 percent of women. In women, having less than a secondary education and prior exposure to personal trauma, such as child abuse or sexual assault, increased PTSD risk significantly. Other factors thought to increase the risk — age, marital status, type of trauma, for example — didn’t have this effect.

Sourced from: World Psychiatry